According to a Kalshi-commissioned survey by Axis, 89% of American voters support prediction markets in their current form, with 54% stating that even if they don't engage in that type of investing or wagering, they "strongly" believe Americans should have the freedom to make their own decisions. These results are among the least surprising of any kind.

Between September 18 and September 23, Axis requested 1,219 votes in the United States. Opponents are likely to argue that the poll's results, which favorably depict the business, are not surprising given that it was supported by one of the biggest names in prediction markets.

Given the numerous state-level legal issues Kalshi is dealing with, it should come as no surprise that a sizable majority of respondents think event contract exchanges ought to be subject to federal regulation.

"Voters nearly universally view the purchase of stocks, mutual funds and participation in commodities markets as a ‘financial investment’ (89%) over viewing these activities as ‘gambling’ (11%),” notes Kashi.  “Because of this belief, voters overwhelmingly say ‘Federal Government Regulators’ should regulate these activities (79%) rather than ‘State Gaming Commissions’ (21%).”

Kalshi recently faced a class-action lawsuit in New York, where the plaintiff claims the site is comparable to illicit gambling. The New York State Gaming Commission (NYGC) informed Kalshi in a letter dated October 24 that the company is providing an unapproved form of wagering, and lawmakers have joined the fray.

A recent Albany bill aims to prohibit Kalshi from providing financial and sports derivatives, among other things.

Voters See Differences, According to Kalshi Poll

Prediction market volumes have skyrocketed since the 2025 football season began as firms like Kalshi increased the number of sports event contracts they offered. This has not only sparked discussion on social media about how much of the turnover in prediction markets comes from sports, but it has also led others to claim that prediction markets are actually sportsbooks.

According to Kalshi, voters perceive distinct distinctions between event contracts and conventional sports bets. According to the Axis survey, 60% of participants stated that determining whether to offer yes/no derivatives necessitates analysis similar to that done in securities selection, which they feel is lacking in "chance-based gambling."

“Prediction markets are aggregating information from thousands of individuals to produce a real-time probability of a sports outcome and should be considered analysis more than gambling (63%),” according to the poll. “Sports prediction markets create a public good by producing forecasts useful to the media, leagues, and owners” (59%).

According to the survey, two-thirds of participants see state initiatives to control prediction markets as attempts to increase tax revenue and stifle innovation. Additionally, respondents think that extra rules would mostly harm bettors and investors.

A survey is released amid negative perceptions of sports betting

The question of whether prediction markets are sportsbooks is unlikely to be resolved in the near future, but it is evident (probably by coincidence) that the Kalshi survey comes at a time when opinions about sports betting are becoming more pessimistic. This sentiment is probably fueled by a recent wave of scandals in US professional sports.

According to a recent YouGov survey, 31% of Americans who identify as sports bettors and 44% of Americans in general think that legalized wagering has a detrimental impact on sports. Just 9% of people in general and 24% of bettors think otherwise.

“Combining respondents who said often, sometimes, or rarely, more than four-fifths of US sports bettors believe athletes alter how they play because of sports betting,” notes YouGov. “This suggests that those more closely involved with sports betting have a higher level of skepticism about the integrity of professional sports.”